7 Crucial Diplomatic Impacts of Iranian President Raisi's Death

Ongoing Wars Might Escalate

For the past seven months, Israel has waged a war in Gaza triggered by a Hamas attack on Israeli cities. There have been accusations that Tehran backs Hezbollah in its confrontation against Tel Aviv. The absence of a key political figure like Raisi could lead to disruptions in ongoing wars, worsening the situation in West Asia.

Impact on Nuclear Negotiations

Raisis death could disrupt ongoing negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). A new leader might have different views on the nuclear deal, leading to either a breakthrough or a further stalemate. Progress or regression in nuclear talks would directly affect international sanctions and Irans economic situation, influencing global markets and regional stability. In 2018, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and reinstated sanctions against Tehran.

Power Struggle

Raisis death could trigger a power vacuum, leading to a struggle among various factions within the Iranian government. According to Article 131 of Iran’s constitution, in the case of the president’s death, the first deputy temporarily assumes the presidency. Mohammad Mokhber, a Khamenei loyalist, currently fills that role. Elections must be held within fifty days to elect a new president.

Backing Radical Groups and Middle East Tensions

Iran’s support for proxy groups in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon might be re-evaluated. Iranian-backed groups could face uncertainty regarding future support, potentially weakening their positions or pushing them towards other alliances.

Relations with Major Powers

The direction of Iran’s foreign policy under new leadership would critically affect its relations with Western powers. Potential changes could either ease tensions or exacerbate conflicts, impacting diplomatic and economic engagements. Partnerships with Russia and China might be reassessed, depending on the new leaderships approach, affecting regional power dynamics and global strategic alliances.

Chabahar Port Deal

The Chabahar Port deal, involving India, Iran, and Afghanistan, is crucial for regional connectivity and trade. Raisi’s death could lead to a reassessment of this project. The port is a key component of India’s strategic interests in the region. Any instability in Iran could affect this project, potentially slowing down its progress or altering its terms.

Continued Hostility Toward Israel and the U.S

Irans efforts to harm Israel and push the U.S. out of the region are likely to continue. Reports indicate that top Biden administration officials were in indirect talks with their Iranian counterparts to avoid escalating regional attacks. With Raisis death threatening further destabilization, the U.S. will look to ensure peace in the volatile region.