BJPs Naya Kashmir Ambitions: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had high hopes of making a breakthrough in Jammu and Kashmir with its vision of Naya Kashmir—a promise of peace, development, and prosperity. However, exit polls suggest a major setback for the party, especially in the Kashmir Valley. Despite the BJPs aggressive push for change, the results may not reflect their ambitions. Heres a detailed look at what went wrong for the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir.Exit Polls predict a hung assemblyExit polls project a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir, with the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance likely to win between 40 to 48 seats out of the 95-member house. Out of the 90 elected seats, the Valley, which holds 47 of them, is expected to remain elusive for the BJP. The party may finally open its account in the Valley after failing to secure any seats in 2014, but its overall performance is still likely to be weak.In contrast, the BJP is predicted to maintain its stronghold in Jammu, with exit polls suggesting the party will win 27-31 out of the 43 seats in the region. This would provide a much-needed morale boost for the party, but it falls short of the BJPs larger ambition of leading the region with its first Chief Minister in Jammu and Kashmir.1. BJPs vision of Naya Kashmir didnt resonate with the valleyDespite the central governments efforts to rebrand the region as a Naya Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, the vision failed to translate into votes. The abrogation stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its special status and promised development, jobs, and security. However, this transformation did not convince a significant portion of the electorate in the Valley.Regional parties like the National Conference (NC) and Mehbooba Muftis Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) effectively tapped into sentiments of dignity and identity, portraying the BJP as anti-Kashmir. While peace and development were priorities for the BJP, they failed to address the deep emotional and cultural loss felt by many due to the removal of Article 370.2. Silencing dissent backfiredThe BJPs tough security policies, designed to curb separatist movements and terrorism, were initially welcomed. However, the heavy-handedness of their approach led to growing discontent. The perception that dissent was being silenced and that collective punishment was being used to suppress free speech further alienated the people in the Valley.The BJPs Naya Kashmir vision, which emphasized stability and security, started to be seen as one that compromised personal freedoms. This sentiment limited the BJPs ability to make electoral inroads in the Valley, even though it maintained strong security measures against terrorism and separatism.3. Failure to deliver on jobs and development promisesAfter Jammu and Kashmir was made a Union Territory, the BJP promised significant investments and job creation, particularly targeting the regions large unemployed youth population. However, these promises largely failed to materialize, creating a sense of frustration among voters.The BJPs inability to deliver on these key development initiatives—despite grand plans—created a gap between expectations and reality, leading many to question the partys commitment to its promises of a prosperous Naya Kashmir.4. BJPs local allies failed to make an impactTo break the dominance of traditional parties like the National Conference and PDP, the BJP forged alliances with newer political forces such as Syed Altaf Bukharis Apni Party and Sajjad Lones Peoples Conference. However, these alliances did not gain the traction needed to challenge the established players.The lack of substantial progress by these local parties in creating a strong political alternative meant that the BJPs electoral strategy in the Valley was largely ineffective. Years of investment in these alliances failed to yield the desired results for the party.5. Regional dynamics favoring NC-Congress allianceThe exit polls indicate that the National Conference-Congress alliance could win 40-48 seats in the Assembly, marking a major victory for the opposition. While the BJP is projected to secure 27-32 seats, it falls short of achieving a commanding majority. The PDP is expected to win 6-12 seats, while independent candidates and other smaller parties could win 6-11 seats.This projection underscores how regional dynamics, particularly in the Valley, continue to favor traditional powerhouses like the NC and Congress, despite the BJPs efforts to reshape the political landscape.BJPs Kashmir dream falls shortThe BJPs ambitious Naya Kashmir narrative, aimed at transforming the region post-Article 370, has struggled to resonate with the electorate, especially in the Valley. Despite their efforts in peace and development, the failure to bridge the gap between promises and results, combined with the partys heavy-handed security approach, has hindered its progress. As exit polls favor the INDIA bloc, its clear that the BJPs dream of achieving electoral dominance in Jammu and Kashmir faces significant challenges.
