Following the completion of the counting process on June 4, 2024, Suresh Gopi, the candidate for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and victor of the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat, took on the responsibility of spearheading the hard lifting for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Kerala. The United Democratic Front (UDF), for which the seat was a sitting one, and the Left Democratic Front (LDF), which had high expectations of capitalizing on the popularity of their candidate, CPIs Sunil Kumar, a former minister in the Pinarayi Vijayan ministry, have both experienced electoral unrest as a result of the triumph. In Thrissur, the votes of both sides declined.Kasaragod, Kannur, Wayanad, Vadakara, and Kozhikode are the five constituencies in north Kerala where the NDA has gained 2% to 6% of the vote. The three districts with the largest increases were Alathur (10%), Thrissur (9%), and Alappuzha (11%). The number of NDA votes increased by 7% in Kollam and Attingal.A Historical OverviewKeralas political scene has been predominantly bipolar, with the UDF and LDF alternating power since the states formation. The BJP, despite its national dominance, has struggled to break this duopoly. However, recent years have seen the BJP intensify its efforts, focusing on expanding its influence through strategic campaigning and coalition-building.The 2019 Elections: A Turning PointThe 2019 Lok Sabha elections marked a pivotal moment for the BJP in Kerala. While the party did not win any seats, it made significant inroads in terms of vote share. The Thrissur constituency, in particular, saw a notable performance by BJP candidate Suresh Gopi, a popular actor-turned-politician. Though he did not win, his campaign managed to capture a substantial portion of the votes, highlighting a shift in the political dynamics of the region.Here are 7 Factors Contributing to the BJPs Rising Influence:Strategic Candidate SelectionSuresh Gopis candidature was a strategic move. His popularity and clean image resonated with many voters, bridging the gap between traditional political boundaries and new-age political appeal.Grassroots CampaigningThe BJPs approach to grassroots-level campaigning, focusing on local issues and engaging directly with the electorate, paid dividends. This strategy helped the party gain a more nuanced understanding of the local political climate and voter concerns.Central Government PoliciesThe Modi governments policies, particularly those related to economic development and infrastructure, found a degree of resonance among certain sections of the Kerala electorate. The promise of replicating these policies at the state level appealed to voters seeking change.Coalition DynamicsThe BJPs efforts to build alliances with smaller parties and social groups have begun to bear fruit. This coalition-building is crucial in a state where political alliances play a significant role in electoral outcomes.Youth Engagement and Social Media OutreachThe BJP has effectively harnessed the power of social media to engage with the youth and the urban middle class in Kerala. Through targeted campaigns, digital rallies, and interactive sessions, the party has managed to attract younger voters who are looking for change and are more receptive to the BJPs development-focused narrative.Focus on Development and Infrastructure ProjectsThe BJP has emphasized its commitment to development and infrastructure projects in Kerala. By promoting initiatives like the Bharatmala and Sagarmala projects, which aim to improve connectivity and boost economic growth, the party has appealed to voters interested in tangible economic progress. Highlighting central government schemes and promising similar developments at the state level has helped the BJP gain traction.Addressing Local Grievances and IssuesThe BJP has strategically focused on addressing local grievances and issues that have been overlooked by the traditional parties. By engaging with various communities, including the marginalized and economically weaker sections, and providing solutions to their problems, the party has managed to build a more inclusive support base. This approach has helped the BJP position itself as a party that listens to and works for all sections of society.These are some challenges ahead for the BJP:Despite these gains, the BJP faces significant challenges in its quest to establish a stronghold in Kerala. The states political culture, which values secularism and social justice, often clashes with the BJPs ideological leanings. Additionally, the deep-rooted presence of the UDF and LDF poses a formidable barrier.Ideological ResistanceKeralas electorate has shown resistance to the BJPs ideological stance, particularly on issues related to religious and cultural identity. Overcoming this resistance requires a delicate balance between ideological propagation and respecting the states cultural ethos.Organizational DepthThe BJP needs to strengthen its organizational structure at the grassroots level. Building a robust cadre that can consistently engage with the electorate beyond election cycles is critical for sustained growth.Perception ManagementThe party needs to address the perception of being an outsider in Keralas political arena. This involves not only integrating local leadership but also addressing regional issues with a localized approach.Overcoming Regional AllegiancesKeralas electorate often displays strong regional allegiances and loyalty to local leaders who have a long-standing presence and track record in their communities. The BJP, being relatively new in many areas, faces the challenge of building similar levels of trust and loyalty among voters who are deeply rooted in their support for regional figures.Countering Opposition CoalitionsBoth the UDF and LDF have deep organizational structures and can form effective coalitions to counter the BJPs advances. These coalitions can unite various groups and communities against the BJP, making it difficult for the party to gain a significant foothold. The ability of opposition parties to mobilize support quickly and effectively poses a major challenge.Handling Internal FactionalismAs the BJP expands its base in Kerala, managing internal factionalism and ensuring unity within the party are crucial. Intra-party conflicts and power struggles can undermine the partys efforts to present a cohesive front. Ensuring that diverse factions within the BJP work together towards common goals is essential for sustained growth.Sustaining Momentum Between ElectionsThe BJP needs to maintain the momentum gained during elections through consistent engagement with the electorate. This requires sustained efforts in community outreach, addressing local issues, and continuous political activity even outside of election periods. Failure to maintain this momentum can result in waning support and diminished electoral gains in subsequent contests.The BJPs performance in the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat during the 2019 elections was a significant step in its political journey in Kerala. While it did not translate into a victory, it demonstrated the partys potential to challenge the established political order. The coming years will be crucial as the BJP continues to build on this foundation, navigating the complex political terrain of Kerala.To truly open doors in Kerala, the BJP must adapt its strategies to align with the states unique political and cultural landscape. Success will depend on its ability to present a credible alternative to the traditional political forces while staying true to the core issues that resonate with Keralas electorate. The journey is fraught with challenges, but the Thrissur experience has undoubtedly laid down a marker, signaling that the BJP is a contender in Keralas evolving political narrative.
