New Delhi: As the result of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 were announced on June 4, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the single largest party with 240 seats. However, major political pundits, pollsters and psephologists have got the it wrong. Many, including Prashant Kishor gave around 300 seats to the BJP and they all failed miserably with their predictions. Recently, Prashant Kishor was interviewed by India Today on the miscalculation of his predictions. Here is what all he said. Anchor: You predicted that BJP would emerge as the number 1. Prashant Kishor: Why only in Bengal I got it wrong in four states. I got it wrong in Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra.Anchor: Four big states!Prashant Kishor: How would I be wrong by 20 per cent if I will not be wrong in (at least) four states. I am saying, that the vote share...the government formed is that of BJP-led NDA. If you are trying to punish me or blame it on me. Rightly so. At the end, BJP formed the government. It was formed with 240 (seats) not 300 (seats) which is a big thing, Im not underplaying it. But if you compare and contrast with those who forecasted that INDIA bloc will form the government. Anchor: Yogendra Yadav clearly said 240 to 260 and he was right. Out of all of you he was right.Prashant Kishor: This is absolutely right. To your surprise, if you interview Yogendra Yadav, he would say, me and Yogendra, we have not exchanged our notes. We are friends and we respect each other. But it is nothing like what the media showing my (prediction) versus your (prediction). Yes he got it right and I am very happy for him. what Im trying to say, in a broader domain, look at your own pollster.Currently, who is the biggest villain right now, Pradeep Gupta. The fact of the matter is the whole of India used to wait for Pradeep Guptas number to come. Now everyone is becoming (acting) clever. No we already knew he was a fraudster. It takes lot of courage, professionalism and conviction to what they have (been) doing. Sometimes you could get wrong and you have understand the complex country like India. You analyze the data that you gather. You could be very scientific and analyzing, you could be very careful and professional in collecting data but if people are giving you wrong answer. For whatever reason. We have to develop the domain to understand that better. But coming to your point, as an ex-strategist. I should not have gone into the number. I never used to. In just last two years I have made the mistake. Once I did it for (West) Bengal. This is the second time.Anchor: Will you continue or not predicting the numbers Or is it a done deal nowPrashant Kishor: No numbers. Will not predict numbers. Because if you remove the numbers everything I have said is right. Modis brand is coming down. Intensity of his support has gone down. There is no wide-spread anger against him. There is a genuine support for food, internal security, Indias image has surged. (But) there is genuine problem with rural distress, unemployment and growing inequality. I said it on many shows. I (still) think then I would have been give (this opinion). That this guy got it right. Anchor: So Prashant Kishor will now not predict numbersPrashant Kishor: No, its not like that. You always learn. You get humble. That this is not your domain you should not do it. The only objection (I have) is when people attribute motive to it. There was no motive. Similarly like people are saying your pollster (Axis My India) did this because they wanted to rig the stock market. That is a foolish argument. Why I tell you! If any of the pollster was aware that BJP is winning 240 and he said 300. What was the need to do so He would have showed 200 and stalled the market. Then also he could have earned money. If he wanted to do that why would he put his reputation at stake for making money. He could have maintained his image by giving the prediction and yet would have made a lot of money. You can bet (in) market both ways. I am saying it is logical. Pradeep Gupta is not my friend. I am telling this those who are generally saying we are very smart. I got it right because all of you are wrong. So yes we all got it wrong. But all of us (who are wrong) have been right for last 7-8 years in predicting the poll outcomes. So say this as well. Then you can say, you got it wrong. You can improve the methodology. Lets call it exit poll not exact poll.#EXCLUSIVE | I shouldnt have gotten into numbers, says poll analyst @PrashantKishor. He also says my assessment minus the numbers was right.#LokSabhaElections2024 #Newstrack @RahulKanwal @SardesaiRajdeep pic.twitter.com/1vAchZ4LUj— IndiaToday (@IndiaToday) June 7, 2024an
