India will experience a typical monsoon this year, according to a statement made on Tuesday by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The agriculture industry, which primarily depends on the rains for crop production, is relieved by the forecast.According to the IMDs most recent assessment, the nation could expect typical rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a favourable Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and decreased snow cover throughout the northern hemisphere are likely to balance the emerging El Nino conditions. The Ministry of Earth Sciences Secretary, M. Ravichandran, has stated that India will have typical rainfall throughout the southwest season (from June to September). With a 5 percent error margin, the likelihood is that the percentage will be 96 percent.It is also anticipated that ample rains may boost the production of the crops like rice, soyabeans, corn and sugarcane, lowering food prices and aiding the governments efforts to cool inflation. Although, the private weather forecaster had predicted below normal rainfall during the monsoon season, attributing the deficiency to a strengthening El Nino phenomenon. El Nino refers to a phase of warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific seasons.The department further said that El Nino may be felt during the second half of the year, although all El Nino years are not bad monsoon years. Almost 40 percent of the El Nino years are not bad and had normal or above normal monsoons.The secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences predicts that this years rains will cover 96 percent of Keralas southern coast around June 1 and will subside by September. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), normal rainfall is defined as falling within the range of 96 and 104 percent of the four-month seasons 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches).For Indias agriculture industry, which makes up approximately 18 percent of the countrys economy, monsoon rains are essential. Indias countryside relies on the yearly monsoon rains from June to September to grow crops. During the June–October monsoon season, farmers in India grow kharif, or summer crops, which make up around 48–50 percent of the countrys overall agricultural output. Major crops like paddy, cotton, maize, tur, soybean, and peanuts are sown during this time. India is one of the countries with the greatest employment rates, and agriculture production is strongly dependent on monsoon rainfall.Meanwhile, Devendra Fadnavis, the deputy chief minister of Maharashtra said that IMD is planning to release its final report on the south-west monsoon forecast by the end of this month and will reveal whether El Nino will cast a shadow on the June-September rains in India.Unseasonal Rains in IndiaThe weather became unfavourable for the crops due to change in weather in February and March this year. Unseasonal rains exposed thousands of farmers to losses and raised the risk of further food price inflation. Majorly Punjab, Haryana, parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, which are accountable for the major wheat production in India, which is the second biggest producer after China, got affected due to rains and hailstorms. However, according to the information, state governments are accessing the losses and farmers will be helped to some extent. While farmers in India look forward to rains every year, the unseasonal downpour in the western and northern parts of India has become the reason for the distress that has damaged the crops and disrupted the harvest season. Before the unexpected rains, India has already witnessed the hottest month in February in over a hundred years.The meteorological department predicted earlier this month that many regions of the nation, except for some areas in the northwest and peninsular region, would see above-average maximum temperatures from April through June.
