NASA’s warning raises alarm! Mumbai, Kolkata in potential impact zone of asteroid 2024 YR4

NASA has recently increased the estimated probability of asteroid '2024 YR4' colliding with Earth to 3.1%. Although the risk remains low, NASA's data suggests that the potential impact zone spans across the eastern Pacific Ocean, South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.

According to media reports, this warning has placed heightened sensitivity on seven of the world's most densely populated cities: Mumbai, Kolkata, Dhaka, Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos, and Khartoum. These urban centers collectively house over 110 million people, making them particularly vulnerable to any catastrophic event.

'City-killer' asteroid to disappear for three years

NASA's latest research indicates that '2024 YR4' will remain observable near Earth until April 2024. After this period, it will become undetectable for nearly three years before resurfacing in June 2028. Initially, NASA estimated the asteroid’s impact probability at 2.3%, but with additional data and refined analysis, the likelihood has now increased to 3.1%.

Experts suggest that even if the asteroid does not collide with Earth, it could explode in the atmosphere with a force equivalent to eight megatons of TNT—500 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Due to its potential for significant destruction, '2024 YR4' has been classified as a 'city-killer' asteroid, meaning that while it does not pose a planetary threat, it could have a devastating impact on a major metropolitan area.

NASA continues to monitor the asteroid’s trajectory closely. As more orbital data becomes available, scientists hope to refine impact probability estimates and determine whether the threat will persist.

First detection of '2024 YR4'

The asteroid was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the Minor Planet Center through NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) stationed in Chile. By December 31, 2024, it was added to NASA’s automated 'Sentry' risk list, drawing immediate attention from astronomers worldwide.

NASA has stated that as further observational data is collected, the probability of impact will be reassessed. Historically, many asteroids initially flagged as risks have later been removed from NASA's asteroid risk list. The space agency continues to conduct rigorous monitoring and research to determine the future trajectory of '2024 YR4' and assess any potential mitigation strategies.