India experiences scorching heat: Unraveling causes of extreme 50-degree temperature

IMD forecasts "above normal" monsoon rainfall for India, with good economic implications, particularly in the monsoon core zone that is critical for rain-fed agriculture.

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Phalodi, in sweltering Rajasthan, hit 50 degrees Celsius on Sunday, making it a true endurance test for people all around India, especially those going to the polls this coming week. This is the hottest temperature recorded since June 1, 2019, when Churu, also in Rajasthan, experienced heatwaves with a temperature of 50.8 degrees Celsius, according to the India Meteorological Department.

Phalodi, which peaked at a searing 50 degrees Celsius in Rajasthan, made Sunday a true endurance test for individuals all around India, especially those who were planning to vote in the current elections. Since June 1, 2019, when Churu, also in Rajasthan, had heatwaves with a temperature of 50.8 degrees Celsius, this is the highest temperature ever recorded, according to the India Meteorological Department.

IMD on heatwaves

Not to be forgotten is the record-breaking temperature of 51 degrees Celsius that Phalodi reached back in 2016. (IMD) said on Monday that during the rainy season of June to September, the nation should expect "above normal" monsoon rainfall overall, particularly in the monsoon core zone that is essential for rain-fed agriculture.

The fact that there is a 61% chance of "above normal" rainfall is encouraging for the economy. But for most of northwest India, there will not be any quick respite from the oppressive heat. June will bring more intense heatwaves to the area, with only a brief reprieve predicted after three days owing to disturbances from the west. Next month, the IMD predicts at least four to six days of hot conditions.

Delhi touches 50!

Tuesday's highest recorded temperature in the city was 49.9 degrees Celsius in Mungeshpur, Northwest Delhi, and Narela, North Delhi; 49.8 degrees Celsius was recorded in Najafgarh, Southwest Delhi. These temperatures were just below the 50-degree mark. This summer's highest temperature ever recorded at any city weather station is this one. The data available for these places' automatic weather stations from 2022 onward indicates that this is the highest maximum temperature they have yet recorded.

The highest maximum temperatures ever recorded at two observatories, one in Aya Nagar, South Delhi, and the other at the Ridge, close to Delhi University, were surpassed on Tuesday. Tuesday's maximum temperature at Aya Nagar was 47.6 degrees Celsius, the highest ever recorded at the station. This surpasses the previous record of 47.4 degrees set in May 1988 at this site.

Rainfall incoming? 

The fact that there is a 61% chance of "above normal" rainfall is encouraging for the economy. But for most of northwest India, there will not be any quick respite from the oppressive heat. June will bring more intense heatwaves to the area, with only a brief reprieve predicted after three days owing to disturbances from the west. Next month, the IMD predicts at least four to six days of hot conditions.

June maximum and minimum temperatures will be normal to above normal in other parts of the nation as well. The intense heat in India is caused by a number of underlying factors, while climate change is a major contributor to rising temperatures. Let us examine these intense temperatures' underlying causes in more detail.The fact that there is a 61% chance of "above normal" rainfall is encouraging for the economy. But for most of northwest India, there will not be any quick respite from the oppressive heat. June will bring more intense heatwaves to the area, with only a brief reprieve predicted after three days owing to disturbances from the west. Next month, the IMD predicts at least four to six days of hot conditions. According to official data, at least 24 places in Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh had temperatures of 45°C or above on Wednesday. Phalodi, Rajasthan, recorded a scorching 50 degrees Celsius.

El Niño impact

Because of the El Niño impact, scientists were able to anticipate the impending heatwave in India in advance. El Niño modifies the earth's weather patterns by relocating warm water to the eastern Pacific, which warms the atmosphere and produces hotter temperatures globally. The current cycle, which started in 2023 and is anticipated to finish in June 2024, could result in an exceptionally hot summer. According to the NOAA study, 2023 was a hotter year than prior ones.

According to research by the Centre for Science and Environment, one of the main causes of temperature rise is the "urban heat island" effect. This phenomenon happens when populated places are densely packed together, trapping heat, reducing green space, causing traffic, and absorbing and producing more heat from human activity. According to a World Bank analysis, reduced productivity from heat stress might result in the loss of 80 million jobs globally by 2030, with 34 million of those jobs potentially falling in India.