New Delhi: The specter of extreme heat waves looms large over Indias agricultural landscape, with predictions from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicating record-high temperatures between 2024 and 2028. The forecast has sent ripples of concern through the farming community of potential disruptions to crop yields and livelihoods. According to the WMOs Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, there is an 80% likelihood that global mean near-surface temperatures will surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year during the specified period. There is also a big chance—47%—that the five-year mean temperature will exceed this critical threshold. The report also highlights a high probability (86%) of at least one year surpassing the record for the warmest year, set in 2023. This unsettling trend is attributed partly to El Niño conditions observed in the tropical East Pacific and the unprecedented warmth in the eastern North Atlantic and southern Europe.The #heatwave in #India and #Pakistan, which pushed temperatures up to 50°C, was made about 30 times more likely by #climatechange, per rapid attribution study by @wxriskMajor impacts on human health, agriculture, economy and ecosystemsDetails: https://t.co/rFlHWaaPU6 pic.twitter.com/eMTzXYFoO1— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) May 24, 2022Impact of frequent El Niño eventsThe years 2019-2023 witnessed widespread temperature anomalies across the globe, except in specific regions like the eastern tropical Pacific and parts of Canada, Australia, and India. The prevalence of El Niño conditions during this period contributed to erratic monsoon patterns in India, culminating in the weakest southwest monsoon in five years. The resulting rainfall deficits, particularly notable in August 2023, posed severe challenges to crop cultivation, exacerbating agricultural vulnerabilities.Escalating global temperaturesHighlighting the alarming trajectory, 2023 emerged as the warmest year on record, with global average near-surface temperatures surpassing the pre-industrial baseline by 1.45°C. This notable temperature rise has unleashed a cascade of extreme weather events worldwide, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and intensified tropical cyclones. These calamities have exacted a heavy toll on communities, disrupting lives and economies alike.Impact on agriculture in IndiaIndias agriculture sector, a cornerstone of its economy, has borne the brunt of these climatic upheavals. Recent years have witnessed unseasonal rains, erratic monsoons, and prolonged heat waves, severely impacting crops such as rice, wheat, pulses, and oilseeds. For instance, the 2022 heat wave during the crucial flowering stage of wheat led to substantial yield losses, prompting the government to impose restrictions on wheat exports to stabilize domestic supplies. Similarly, unseasonal rains in July 2023 devastated vegetable production in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, resulting in a surge in tomato prices nationwide.Steps towards climate resilienceRecognizing the urgency of climate adaptation, the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) has spearheaded initiatives to enhance agricultural resilience. Proactive measures include the development and dissemination of over 1,956 stress-tolerant crop varieties and hybrids, of which 1,622 are specifically climate resilient. The adoption of climate-resilient farming systems and the establishment of climate-resilient villages across 151 districts underscore Indias commitment to mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.
