India is likely to witness above normal monsoon, along with cumulative rainfall estimated average of 104% of Long Period Average with 87cm. According to the information, the weather department has predicted the southwest monsoon season will exist from June to September. IMD added that seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of plus minus 5%.According to the official notification, “Moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season.”IMD predicts 2024 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole to be above normal (104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). Seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. LPA of monsoon rainfall (1971-2020) is 87 cm. pic.twitter.com/bgBhLX0M2W— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) April 15, 2024It further added, “The northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March, 2024) was below normal. Winter and spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall.”The weather department also said that it will issue updated forecast for the monsoon in the last week of May.
