As India enters the final month of the monsoon season, the country is expected to experience a continuation of the above-normal rainfall that characterized August, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra announced in a recent virtual press conference that precipitation in September is likely to exceed 109% of the long-term average of 167.9 millimeters (6.6 inches).Most regions across India are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, which could have a positive impact on the countrys agricultural sector. The increased precipitation is likely to boost crop yields for rice and soybeans, while also replenishing water levels in major reservoirs. This favorable weather condition is crucial for the upcoming winter crops, including wheat and rapeseed, and could contribute to economic stability by reducing food inflation.Food inflation In July, food inflation rose by 5.4%, and higher crop yields in the coming months may prompt the government to consider easing restrictions on rice and sugar exports. However, the forecast also brings concerns, as some regions in northwest India, such as Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, and parts of Madhya Pradesh, may experience extremely heavy rainfall, leading to potential floods and landslides.Mohapatra emphasized the need for caution, particularly in these areas, as the likelihood of landslides, mudslides, and other related disasters increases. The IMD predicts the development of a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal each week in September, which will drive significant rainfall across the country. Despite the overall positive forecast, some regions, including parts of the southern peninsula, northern Bihar, northeastern Uttar Pradesh, and much of northeast India, may see below-normal rainfall, potentially impacting local agriculture and water resources.
