Delhi’s winter on hold? Decoding capital's record warmth, delayed chills in month of November

New Delhi: As November progresses, Delhi’s anticipated winter chill remains absent, with the city experiencing unusually warm temperatures averaging 28°C. Despite post-Diwali expectations of cooler weather, residents continue to endure prolonged autumn-like conditions.

IMD Predicts Continued Warmth

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), typical winter temperatures may be delayed further. The IMD's latest two-week forecast predicts temperatures will remain 4–6°C above normal, with daytime highs staying above 30°C until the third week of November. This follows October 2024, which was the hottest October in 74 years, underscoring an ongoing warming trend.

Absence of Western Disturbances

The lack of Western Disturbances, critical weather systems from the Mediterranean, is a key factor behind the warmer conditions. These systems typically bring rain and cooler weather to North India but have been absent since the monsoon’s withdrawal in October. Consequently, Northwest India has experienced 80% less rainfall than usual, further contributing to the dry and warm climate.

Global Climate Patterns at Play

Adding to Delhi’s predicament, global climate phenomena like El Nino and La Nina are affecting regional weather dynamics. El Nino, which usually causes warmer conditions, was expected to fade but has remained neutral. Conversely, La Nina, associated with cooler weather, might develop between November and December, though its impact remains uncertain.

Weak Western Disturbance Offers Little Hope

A weak Western Disturbance predicted between November 16 and 21 is expected to impact only the upper Himalayas, leaving Delhi untouched. Without significant rainfall or cooler winds, the city’s temperatures remain stagnant, keeping winter’s chill at bay.

As traditional seasonal patterns shift globally, Delhiites must prepare for warmer Novembers and delayed winters. The prolonged autumn and erratic weather patterns signify a broader climate upheaval, demanding a reevaluation of expectations for the capital’s seasonal transitions.