BJP’s strategy overpowers AAP in 2025 Delhi polls, factors behind dramatic shift

Delhi: The 2025 Delhi assembly election delivered a shock to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had ruled the national capital for three consecutive terms. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made a resounding comeback, securing 48 out of 70 seats after a gap of 27 years, while AAP’s share plummeted to just 22 seats, a dramatic drop from its 2020 tally of 62. The Congress, which had split from the AAP under the INDIA alliance, failed to win any seats. Let’s break down the factors that played a pivotal role in shaping the results.

BJP's tactical campaigning: Winning over the middle class

The BJP's campaign strategy centered on appealing to Delhi’s middle and neo-middle class, which resonated deeply with voters. In contrast, AAP managed to retain its core low-income base but struggled to expand beyond that. The Union Budget 2025's tax cuts further bolstered the BJP’s position among the middle class. BJP's ability to target this significant voter base proved instrumental in securing their victory.

Persistent campaign strategy: Undermining AAP's incumbency

The BJP began its campaign long before the election was officially called, ensuring that any negative headlines about the AAP were amplified through sustained efforts. This ongoing narrative, which spotlighted AAP’s perceived failures, gradually eroded its support. A key issue was the ‘sheesh mahal’ controversy, surrounding the lavish renovation of former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s residence, which tainted his image as an anti-corruption leader. Other factors such as deteriorating infrastructure, poor roads, traffic congestion, air pollution, and a polluted Yamuna also became central talking points in BJP’s campaign.

Populist promises and attacks on AAP's ‘Freebies’ agenda

As the election neared, the BJP made populist promises, countering AAP’s freebie-based appeal. The BJP’s manifesto highlighted schemes like the ₹2,500 monthly aid under the ‘Mahila Samridhi Yojana’ for women. Furthermore, the "double-engine sarkar" rhetoric, emphasizing coordination between the state and central governments, resonated with voters, especially when AAP’s ongoing tussles with the Lieutenant Governor raised concerns about governance issues.

The BJP also took a firm stance against AAP’s welfare policies, particularly targeting its mohalla clinics. Claims of "fake medicines" and "ghost patients" were highlighted, undermining the credibility of AAP's healthcare initiatives. When paired with the ongoing crisis of the polluted Yamuna, these attacks seemed to find a receptive audience, especially in areas bordering Haryana, where AAP faced significant losses.

Kejriwal’s shifting image and anti-incumbency sentiment

Arvind Kejriwal’s image as a leader who once advocated against government bungalows shifted dramatically during this election. His decision to occupy a government residence created a perception of hypocrisy, tarnishing his once-humble persona. This shift in Kejriwal's image contributed significantly to the anti-incumbency sentiment, with critics such as his former colleagues, Prashant Bhushan and Yogendra Yadav, accusing him of straying from his original mission of offering an alternative to traditional politics. This was a key factor in AAP’s defeat.

Modi’s influence: The final nail in AAP’s coffin

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's influence played a crucial role in the BJP’s victory. His direct criticism of AAP and promises of better coordination between the Centre and Delhi resonated with many voters. As AAP struggled with internal issues and external attacks, Modi’s presence in the BJP campaign provided the momentum that ultimately tipped the scale in the party’s favor.

A complex blend of strategies

In conclusion, the BJP’s triumph in the 2025 Delhi election was no accident. A well-executed campaign targeting the middle class, persistent undermining of AAP's governance, populist promises, and strategic attacks on AAP's welfare policies created a potent electoral mix. On the other hand, AAP’s struggles with anti-incumbency, leadership image issues, and the ongoing tussle with the LG provided the BJP with the ammunition it needed to make a successful comeback after nearly three decades.