Haryana: BJP shatters jinx, defies exit polls set for third term, secures deprived SC vote

In the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections, voter turnout was 67.90%, nearly matching the 67.94% turnout in 2019. However, this was a notable 3.1% increase from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

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One of the key reasons for the misjudgment was the erroneous assumption by exit pollsters that the Dalit votes, which comprise around 22.50% of Haryana's population, would overwhelmingly go to the Congress. I (X)

New Delhi: In a surprising turn of events, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to form its third consecutive government in Haryana. All major exit polls and political analysts had predicted otherwise, but the results proved them wrong, especially with how the votes of the Scheduled Caste (SC) community were cast.

Exit polls miscalculated SC vote?

One of the key reasons for the misjudgment was the erroneous assumption by exit pollsters that the Dalit votes, which comprise around 22.50% of Haryana's population, would overwhelmingly go to the Congress. In reality, the results were quite the opposite. A significant portion of the Dalit vote, specifically from the Deprived Scheduled Castes (DSC), shifted toward the BJP.

Deprived SCs rally behind BJP!

Of the total SC population, 14% belong to the Deprived Scheduled Castes (DSC), a segment that the Manohar Lal Khattar-led government reclassified to highlight their specific needs. This group largely rallied behind the BJP, influenced by targeted campaigns and endorsements from DSC community leaders. In contrast, the remaining 8.50% of SC voters, comprising communities like Chamar, Rager, Jatav, and Ravidasis, split their votes among various parties, including Congress, INLD-BSP, and AAP-JJP.

Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh’s bold remarks on BJP's turnaround

BJP leader Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh made sharp remarks following BJP's lead in the Haryana elections, emphasizing the party's success in constituencies with significant Jat populations. He pointed out that many BJP candidates secured victories in areas traditionally dominated by Jat voters, which is seen as a significant win for the party. Addressing the recent wrestler’s agitation, Singh dismissed the wrestlers involved as “villains,” claiming they failed to resonate with the people of Haryana. He stated, “The so-called wrestlers in the agitation are not heroes of Haryana but villains, even in the eyes of junior wrestlers.”

Singh also took a swipe at renowned wrestler Vinesh Phogat, referencing her use of his name during her campaign efforts. In a sarcastic tone, he remarked, “If she used my name to win, it means I am a great man who helped her succeed. She won, but Congress lost.” Singh did not stop there, warning of Phogat’s potential negative impact on Congress, adding, “Wherever she goes, there will only be destruction.” His comments have stirred considerable debate, further fueling political tensions as the BJP remains confident in solidifying its hold in Haryana.

Congress fails to appeal to the Dalit community

The Congress party, under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, failed to win over the Dalit community. Gandhi's controversial statement in the US about reservations damaged Congress’ standing among the SC voters, with many feeling alienated by his remarks. This blunder allowed the BJP to consolidate its support among the DSC community, leaving Congress behind. 

In the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections, voter turnout was 67.90%, nearly matching the 67.94% turnout in 2019. However, this was a notable 3.1% increase from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Many of these additional voters were likely BJP supporters who had abstained from voting earlier. Additionally, a silent section of the electorate, disillusioned by the Congress and its previous governance under Bhupinder Singh Hooda, also backed the BJP.