AI predicts outcome of UP by-polls: Yogi or Akhilesh who will lead?

In Uttar Pradesh, the political landscape is gearing up for a crucial contest as 10 assembly seats are set to go to the bypolls soon. This election is attracting significant attention as Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party has joined forces with Congress to challenge the ruling BJP. After the setback in the Lok Sabha elections, this bypoll is seen as another critical test for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. The battle lines are clearly drawn, with the BJP facing off against Akhilesh Yadav's coalition of backward classes, Dalits, and minorities.

Opinion poll insights

Ahead of the bypolls, Zee News' AI anchor Zeenia has conducted another opinion poll following the success of their grand Lok Sabha exit polls. This latest survey, carried out by the data analytics firm ICPL for Zee News, aims to assess the potential outcomes of the bypolls. The 10 seats going to the polls are Karhal, Milkipur, Katehari, Majhawan, Phulpur, Kundarki, Khair, Merrapur, Ghaziabad, and Sisamu.

According to the opinion poll, the BJP is projected to win six seats, while the SP-Congress alliance is expected to secure four seats. When respondents were asked if the Lok Sabha poll results would influence the bypolls, 58% believed it would have an impact, whereas 42% felt it would not affect the by-elections.

Key issues and voter concerns

The poll revealed varied voter concerns, with a significant portion (63%) stating that bulldozer politics is an important issue, while 29% considered it a non-issue. On the topic of the paper leak controversy, 45% of respondents felt it would impact the bypolls, while 37% believed it would not influence the outcome.

When asked about the primary issues for the bypolls, 40% of respondents identified caste as the major issue, followed by 35% who pointed to employment, and 20% who cited religion. A notable 55% of people indicated that caste issues are more significant than religious issues in Uttar Pradesh.

Milkipur: A case study

Milkipur has emerged as a focal point for both the BJP and the opposition. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is determined to win this seat, which is currently represented by MLA Awadhesh Prasad, who took the Ayodhya Lok Sabha seat from the BJP. Both parties have devised strategies for this seat, and according to the AI poll, the BJP holds a slight advantage with 52% of people favouring the party, compared to 48% for the Samajwadi Party.

Chief ministerial preferences

The survey also gauged public opinion on their preferred Chief Minister. Yogi Adityanath emerged as the favourite, with 58% of respondents voting for him, while 40% supported Akhilesh Yadav, and only 2% favoured Mayawati. Additionally, a substantial majority (87%) expressed satisfaction with Yogi Adityanath's performance, with 65% recognising him as the best CM for development work. On the issue of law and order, Yogi Adityanath received 70% of the vote, compared to 17% for Akhilesh Yadav and 13% for Mayawati.