What is Russia's Father of all Bombs that it threatens to deploy in Ukraine?

Ukraine-Russia War: In a significant escalation, former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has hinted at the possibility of Russia using its most powerful non-nuclear weapon, the "Father of All Bombs" (FOAB), in Ukraine. Medvedev, known for his hardline stance, posted on Telegram, warning that the patience of the Russian forces may soon run out, and if so, devastating consequences could follow.

In his post, Medvedev referred to Western analysts who had warned that Russia might resort to more severe conventional responses if provoked, hinting at the deployment of weapons like the FOAB.

What is the 'Father of All Bombs'?

The FOAB, officially known as the Aviation Thermobaric Bomb of Increased Power (ATBIP), is the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in Russia's arsenal. Weighing approximately 7,100 kilograms, the FOAB has an explosive yield equivalent to 44 tons of TNT. This thermobaric bomb creates a high-pressure blast wave and intense combustion, making it extremely effective against buildings, fortifications, and personnel.

Russia first unveiled the FOAB in 2007 as a response to the U.S.'s "Mother of All Bombs" (MOAB). The devastating power of the FOAB has drawn comparisons to nuclear weapons in terms of its destructive capabilities, although it remains a conventional weapon.

'New delivery vehicles'

Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, including the Tu-22M3 Backfire, Tu-95MS Bear-H, and Tu-160 Blackjack, is equipped to deliver the FOAB. However, Medvedev’s mention of "new delivery vehicles" raises the possibility of using a missile like the RS-28 Sarmat, also known as Satan II. The Sarmat, designed to replace the older Soviet SS-18 ICBMs, is capable of carrying large payloads over intercontinental distances, including both conventional and nuclear warheads.

The Sarmat’s capacity to carry the 7-ton FOAB suggests it could be used for precision strikes, especially as bombers may struggle against Ukraine's U.S.-supplied Patriot missile defense systems. If Russia opts to use the Sarmat for such a strike, it could deliver multiple FOABs independently to different targets, multiplying the devastation.

While modifying the Sarmat to carry larger payloads is technically feasible, it would require significant adjustments to ensure the missile's accuracy and stability. Russia’s strategic forces, which officially inducted the Sarmat in 2023, may have already tested these configurations.

Russia's perceived threat from NATO

Russia has viewed NATO’s eastward expansion as an existential threat since the early 2000s. In response, it has developed a range of advanced weaponry, including the Sarmat missile, Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles, and Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedoes.

Since 2018, President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly highlighted these new systems as part of Russia’s strategy to counter NATO’s influence. The Sarmat, in particular, was designed with flexibility in mind, allowing for a range of payload options depending on the mission.

Given Russia's development of these capabilities, it’s likely that the Sarmat has been tested with various payload sizes, including heavier warheads designed for shorter-range strikes. This fits with Medvedev's veiled warning about new delivery methods.

Implications for Ukraine

If Medvedev's statements indeed hint at the use of the FOAB via a missile strike, the implications for Ukraine could be severe. A conventional strike of this magnitude, while not as catastrophic as a nuclear one, could cause significant damage to infrastructure and result in massive civilian casualties.

However, experts note that a conventional response—no matter how devastating—is far less escalatory than the deployment of nuclear weapons. As such, Medvedev’s comments, while alarming, may suggest that Russia is attempting to assert its military dominance without crossing the nuclear threshold.

The U.S. has acknowledged that Ukrainian deep strikes using Western-supplied weapons would have minimal impact on Russia’s war capabilities, as Russia has repositioned most of its military assets beyond the reach of these systems. Despite this, Russia remains prepared to retaliate against any perceived escalation by Ukraine.

Medvedev’s threats signal that Russia may be considering the use of its most powerful conventional weapon, the FOAB, in Ukraine. The delivery of such a weapon via a missile like the Sarmat could dramatically shift the dynamics of the conflict, inflicting devastating damage without resorting to nuclear weapons. However, the use of this bomb would likely provoke international outrage and could intensify calls for Western intervention.

As the war in Ukraine drags on, both sides are increasingly exploring extreme options to tip the balance in their favor. Whether or not Russia follows through on Medvedev's threats remains to be seen, but the potential use of the FOAB adds a dangerous new dimension to the ongoing conflict.