Turkey and Hungary continue to stand in the way of Sweden joining NATO while neighbouring Finland joined the organisation on Tuesday after having its application approved in record speed.Experts predict that Turkey wont accept Swedens application until at least after the countrys election on May 14. Even then, its uncertain what would persuade President Tayyip Erdogan to change his mind. Hungary appears to be imitating Ankaras actions.More countries to join NATOSweden and Finland decided to abandon their long-standing defence non-alignment policy in the wake of Russias attack on Ukraine in February of last year. Both nations view NATOs collective defence provision as the most effective means of ensuring their safety. Most of the NATO countries swiftly approved their request, reasoning that Sweden and Finland would fortify the organisation in the Baltic, where they share a 1,300 km (810 mi) territory with Russia.The Turkish HurdleThe Turkish government last week approved Finlands accession despite early opposition. Meanwhile, Turkey has delayed its feet over Sweden, claiming that it does not take Ankaras security issues seriously and that Stockholm has not upheld its end of a deal negotiated in Madrid last year and set forth a range of problems that Stockholm must address. Hungary has slowed down approval, which needs to be unanimous, following Turkeys path. Sweden claims that the Madrid Agreement has been executed, including harsher anti-terrorism measures, and that some of Ankaras other demands cannot be fulfilled.Politicians in Ankara are displeased by Swedens criticism of Turkey for violating democratic norms and human rights. Turkey accuses Stockholm of harbouring individuals it views as belonging to terrorist organisations. However, Sweden disputes this claim. Turkey has urged their extradition as a condition for accepting Swedens membership. Swedish courts have halted several expulsions. Turkey has expressed displeasure in recent weeks over protests in Stockholm that saw the desecration of Muslim holy text, the burning of the Koran and the upside-down hanging of an effigy of Turkish President Erdogan. Those are violent acts and hate crimes, according to Turkey. Sweden claims that they are protected by rules governing free expression.Swedens road to NATOOn May 14, Turkey will hold elections, posing Erdogan with the greatest political test in his 20 years in office. The NATO crisis may help shift voters focus away from the cost-of-living issues. A victory by the opposition, which is a serious possibility, would increase Swedens chances of gaining membership quickly.According to Hungary, Sweden has long maintained resentment toward Budapest. It is enraged by Swedish criticism of Prime Minister Viktor Orban for allegedly undermining the rule of law. Orban denies any such development. Hungary, unlike Turkey, does not have a list of demands but claims that problems must be resolved before confirming Swedens NATO membership. Swedens direction might be evident after the elections come to an end. Yet, there is no timeline and approval promised. Expert observationsTurkey has clashed with NATO countries in the past and yielded ground. “When we look back at past incidents, they were addressed by pressure from allies, diplomacy, and some compromises from partners.”According to Paul Levin, director of the Centre for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, the same outcome would be possible here. A change might occur after the election, or Erdogan might require more proof from Sweden that it has taken Ankaras security concerns seriously. In that situation, Levin added, “Were talking about a few more months after summer.” Yet forecasting is difficult.Sweden claims that its security situation has improved since its application to NATO. Sweden has received pledges of assistance from countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. According to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, it would be impossible for the organisation to abandon Sweden in the event of danger. Sweden already works closely with NATO, and merger plans are underway. Sweden has a superior air force, and a submarine fleet specialised in Baltic Sea circumstances, giving NATO an advantage in the area.
