Written by Shobhana AhluwaliaChina has like Russia traditionally been an expansionist power and has sought to extend its influence beyond its borders into the countries of South Asia, making repeated forays into Indian territory.According to a new study reported in the Deccan Herald on November 11, 2022 the Chinese incursions into India represent a premeditated effort to gain ascendancy in the border zones claimed by both sides.Recently in December 2022, Chinese troops attempted to cross over into the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh leading to a border clash between the two countries. The Line of Actual Control was breached by the Chinese and their subsequent engagement with the Indian army lasted a few hours. The Indian troops responding promptly repulsed the attack and no lives were lost as a result of the Chinese adventurism. The attack came after an interlude of peace between the two sides as they had last clashed in January 2021 near the state of Sikkim.The Chinese aggression was strongly condemned by countries such as the United States and in fact, caused a further deterioration in Sino-American relations already at an all-time low due to the observation of a Chinese balloon in American airspace. Upon being spotted the balloon had been quickly shot down by US fighter jets but the balloon was seen as a Chinese spy tactic as it had electronic equipment capable of carrying out surveillance activity. The Chinese intrusion into American skies was strongly condemned by the US government and consequently, recent Chinese aggression globally including the incursion into India has been looked upon extremely unfavourably by the US.While Chinese aggression in India has been limited by the barrier posed by the Himalayan mountain range, China did in fact invade India in 1962. The last war between India and China was from October to November 1962 and was the consequence of a border transgression. History having taught us this lesson, any Chinese incursion needs to be regarded with due seriousness as it can lead to a full-fledged Sino-Indian war.But the Chinese incursion in the current context acquires a new dimension as both India and China are now nuclear powers. This fact is a testimonial to the danger of an all-out war between the two countries preceding it might be a nuclear conflagration that would prove fatal to the population of both nations.The economic dimension of any major Sino-Indian conflict should also be considered in the event of a Chinese incursion leading to a full-fledged war between the two countries. Such a conflict would inevitably lead to a breakdown in trade relations between the two countries. This would prove disastrous for India as China can now claim the status of being one of Indias largest trading partners. Modi has thus sought to maintain the status quo in the economic sphere between the two countries, a policy which has invited scathing criticism from the opposition parties. As reported by the Economic Times on December 16, 2022 the Congress accused Modi of maintaining “normal” trade relations with China while the border situation continued to be “abnormal”.The problem of how Chinese incursions into India might best be halted is contingent on the question of how successful they have been in the past. The Chinese dragon has succeeded in wresting control of 2000 sq km of land in Ladakh (as reported by The Hindu on January 29, 2023, quoting Mr Gandhi). But under present conditions, Indian troops are much more vigilant and have superior preparedness to repel a Chinese attack as was proved in Tawang. Thus the Chinese troops have little to gain by adopting a confrontational posture vis-a-vis the Indian army either in the western or eastern sector. This being the case, the Chinese may be receptive to Indian diplomatic initiatives inviting closer economic cooperation between the two Asian powers. The carrot-and-stick approach is likely to yield rich dividends in the issue of Chinese incursions into India.The views written are those of the author and the publisher may or may not necessarily agree with them.
