Pakistan's potential exit from Shimla agreement: Who bears the burden?

The recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir has spurred India to strike back hard, and Pakistan threatened to open another front and even breach the Simla Agreement. Signed in 1972, the Simla Agreement has stood as a backbone of India-Pakistan relations, governing their actions on various topics, including Kashmir. What if Pakistan were to back out from this agreement?

What is the Simla agreement?

The Simla Agreement was signed on July 2, 1972, by the Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Pakistani President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. It was meant to set the framework for relations between Pakistan and India following the 1971 war, resulting in the creation of Bangladesh. The major points of the treaty are:

The key features of the treaty are:

• Bilateral talks to settle divergences, without third-party mediation
•  The Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, demarcated after the 1971 war, would be respected by both nations
• India would let out over 90,000 Pakistani troops and recapture West Pakistan-held ground
•  Pakistan would resume diplomatic relations with India and accept Bangladesh's sovereignty

Consequences of suspension

If Pakistan gives up on the Simla Agreement, both countries would face severe repercussions.

Advantages for India

1. Relief from diplomatic constraints of LoC: India could formulate a new policy towards the LoC to free itself from diplomatic constraints in accessing the LoC.
2. Discretion in military response: India could have more freedom to respond to terrorist attacks without being bound by the compulsions of the treaty.
3. International support: India can go to countries such as the OIC, UN, America, Europe, and Israel for help without fearing reciprocation.

Harm to Pakistan

1. International platform: Pakistan's attempt to revive the case of Kashmir on the international platform can prove to be a failure, as the world is growing tired of Pakistan's propaganda and image of terrorism.
2. Diplomatic pressure: Pakistan's attempt to impose diplomatic pressure on India through its alignment with China may not be very effective, in light of India's strategic alignment with China and the US.
3. LoC Instability: Legitimization of the termination of the Simla Agreement may disturb the stability of the LoC, and there may be an increased likelihood of infiltration, conflict, and military confrontations.

Pakistan pulls out of the agreement

The Simla Agreement has formed a crucial part of India-Pakistan relations, which has conditioned their actions on various matters. In case Pakistan pulls out of the agreement, both countries would have significant ramifications. Though India would gain more room to respond to acts of terror and avail itself of its international prestige, Pakistan may face diplomatic challenges and turbulence along the LoC.