NASA issues warning: 72% chance of Catastrophic Asteroid impact on Earth

NASA's hypothetical exercise indicates a 72% likelihood of a hazardous asteroid impact, revealing gaps in preparedness, such as decision-making and mission readiness. The DART mission confirmed trajectory alteration capabilities, and the upcoming NEO Surveyor, launching in 2028, will enhance early detection of threats.

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NASA recently revealed findings from a hypothetical exercise simulating a potentially hazardous asteroid impact. This exercise, NASA's fifth biennial Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise, took place in April and was summarised on June 20 at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland. The exercise underscored potential gaps in Earth's preparedness to avert such a catastrophe, with a simulated 72% chance of an asteroid striking Earth.

The event gathered nearly 100 representatives from various the US government agencies and international partners to evaluate Earth's capability to effectively respond to an asteroid threat. Although there are no significant asteroid threats anticipated shortly, this exercise was crucial for assessing risk, response strategies, and collaborative opportunities in various scenarios.

NASA's planetary defense efforts include a comprehensive monitoring system that tracks asteroids and comets approaching Earth within 7.5 million kilometers. Asteroids, remnants from the formation of our solar system, vary greatly in size, shape, and composition, ranging from rocky structures to those containing metals like nickel and iron.

Lindley Johnson, NASA's planetary defense officer emeritus, emphasized the significance of the exercise in considering complex scenarios. He noted that while a large asteroid impact is a natural disaster that humanity can predict and potentially prevent years in advance, the exercise revealed critical gaps in preparedness. These include decision-making processes, the readiness for rapid deployment of space missions, timely global coordination of messaging, and undefined disaster management plans for asteroid impacts.

NASA has catalogued around 30,000 asteroids near Earth, with over 850 being larger than a kilometer wide. These Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are not a threat for the next century, but NASA monitors potentially hazardous asteroids with orbits that could bring them close to Earth.

The DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission demonstrated the ability to alter an asteroid's trajectory, marking a significant milestone in planetary defense. Additionally, the NEO Surveyor, an infrared space telescope set for launch in June 2028, will enhance the early detection of potentially hazardous asteroids. These initiatives highlight NASA's ongoing efforts to improve Earth's readiness for potential asteroid impacts, emphasising the importance of preparedness and proactive measures.