Monkeypox will INFECT you through aerosols: Script from Munich Security Conference held in 2021 predicting spread

New Delhi: In March 2021, the Munich Security Conference, in partnership with the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), conducted a tabletop simulation aimed at mitigating the spread of the Monkeypox virus. This exercise, designed to address high-consequence biological threats, is now drawing eerie parallels to real-world events.

Munich Security Conference: Simulating a global pandemic

The simulation, held at the Munich Security Conference, was crafted to identify and address gaps in both national and international biosecurity and pandemic preparedness. The scenario depicted an unusual strain of the Monkeypox virus emerging from a fictional nation, Brinia, and spreading globally within 18 months.

Hypothetical scenario turns real

In the simulated exercise, the outbreak was initiated by a terrorist attack, involving a laboratory-engineered pathogen with inadequate biosafety measures. The scenario unfolded through a series of short videos, prompting participants to react and discuss strategies for strengthening international pandemic response systems.

Key themes from the exercise included enhancing international pandemic risk assessment, establishing early warning systems, ensuring clear triggers for national responses, reducing biotechnology risks, and improving oversight of life sciences research.

From simulation to reality

The exercise, which might have seemed hypothetical at the time, mirrors the actual outbreak of Monkeypox now spreading beyond Africa. The first human infection of Monkeypox was identified in 1971, while the virus was initially discovered in research monkeys in 1958. As of May 2022, the scenario's predicted events began unfolding, raising questions about the effectiveness of such simulations in preventing real outbreaks.

Now once again the outbreak of the monkeypox virus has reached outside Africa upto our neighbour Pakistan. The World Health Organization has once again declared monkeypox, renaming it to mpox, a global health emergency. The virus spreads through close contact. It causes flu-like symptoms and pus-filled lesions. 

The World Health Organization has declared that an outbreak of mpox, a viral infection that spreads through close contact, represents a global health emergency for the second time in two years. Mpox causes flu-like symptoms and pus-filled lesions.

Similarities to COVID-19

The Monkeypox simulation’s findings resonate with the real-world challenges faced during the COVID-19 pandemic, which originated in Wuhan. Notably, the Wuhan Institute of Virology was conducting “Gain of Function” research, which allegedly led to the COVID-19 outbreak. A delegation sent to Wuhan produced an inconclusive report on the virus’s origins, highlighting the need for robust pandemic preparedness mechanisms.

Exercise findings and recommendations

Participants discussed several crucial points during the exercise, including:

• Strengthening international architectures for early assessment of pandemic risks and issuing timely warnings.
• Developing national response triggers and scaling public health interventions.
• Reducing biotechnology risks and enhancing oversight of dual-use bioscience research.
• Strengthening international financing mechanisms to bolster global health security preparedness.

A call for robust pandemic preparedness

The simulation concluded with recommendations to:

• Improve international systems for pandemic risk assessment and early warnings.
• Develop national-level triggers for proactive pandemic responses.
• Establish an international entity dedicated to reducing biological risks from rapid technological advances.
• Create a global health security fund to accelerate pandemic preparedness in lower-income countries.
• Enhance international processes for supply chain resilience.

The predictive nature of the Monkeypox simulation underscores the importance of robust, transparent systems for early detection, evaluation, and response to potential pandemics, emphasizing the need for continuous investment in global health security.