Scientists have warned that the world is on track to set new records in the next five years, with temperatures expected to exceed the 1.5°C threshold over pre-industrial levels. According to studies undertaken by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the violation of this crucial threshold, which could have serious implications, is predicted to be transient. However, as the UN agency warned, this would represent a substantial acceleration of human effect on the global climate system, driving the globe into uncertain terrain.The difference between 1.5°C & 3°C global warming means vastly different scenarios for the future.Our survival on this planet hinges on these few degrees.Addressing the climate crisis & limiting temperature rise is possible, if we #ActNow. https://t.co/X0Shwfcd3n via @UNFCCC pic.twitter.com/NUxzA1V18T— United Nations (@UN) May 11, 2023Breaching the 1.5°C limitCountries vowed to restrict global temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, citing scientific concerns that crossing this threshold would result in a succession of increasingly severe and ultimately permanent consequences. WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas highlighted that the research does not imply an indefinite breach of the 1.5C limit stated in the Paris Agreement, which applies to long-term warming over many years. The WMO, on the other hand, warns that the 1.5C limit will be briefly exceeded more frequently in the years to come.Global average surface temperatures have never exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius in the past, with the greatest prior average being 1.28 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to the analysis, there is a 66% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C barrier in at least one year between 2023 and 2027.While new temperature records have been established in numerous places around the world during recent heat waves, the analysis suggests that current highs may be just the beginning. Global heatwaves are projected as a result of climate breakdown and the effect of an impending El Nio weather system.Image: PixabayWhat are El Nio and La Nia phenomenonsEl Nio is a periodic weather event in the Pacific, and the world has been experiencing the opposing phase known as La Nia for the past three years, which has restrained temperature increases globally. As La Nia fades and a new El Nio forms, there is a 98% possibility that one of the next five years will be the warmest on record. Professor Taalas emphasised the potential effects, claiming that a warmer El Nio combined with human-caused climate change could push world temperatures into unknown territory, with severe repercussions for health, food security, water management, and the environment. It is crucial to be ready.The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of earth, which appears to be influencing global weather systems, especially the jet stream, and generating disturbances in northern hemisphere weather conditions. The report predicts lower rainfall in the Amazon, Central America, Australia, and Indonesia this year, posing an important threat to the Amazon rainforest, as scientists worry a dangerous cycle of heating and deforestation will push the region into savannah-like conditions, jeopardising the regions crucial function as carbon sinks.In recent years, the planet has warmed significantly. In the Paris Agreement of 2015, it was decided that no temporary violation of the 1.5°C limit would occur over the next five years, with the plan of limiting the increase in global temperatures to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels while aiming for 1.5°C.
