New Delhi: For several years, the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has surpassed the U.S. Navy in sheer number of warships, although not in tonnage, where the U.S. still maintains a significant lead. An official stated, “The magnitude, scope, and scale of this security challenge cannot be understated.”The Pentagons 2023 report on Chinese military power highlighted that the combined fleet of the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and PLAN includes over 3,150 operational aircraft, excluding trainers and unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). In comparison, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) has about 4,000 aircraft, with thousands more across the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Army.China is ramping up production of advanced combat platforms at an impressive rate. The country is manufacturing around 60 J-20 fifth-generation fighters annually, a number expected to rise to 100 in the near future, all for domestic use. By contrast, the U.S. produces approximately 135 F-35 jets each year, nearly half of which are supplied to foreign partners.There is debate among analysts, especially from the U.S. and India, regarding the classification of the J-20. Some argue it should be considered a 4.5-generation aircraft, citing differing criteria between China and the West. However, Chinese airpower is on track to overtake the U.S. soon if its current growth continues.Tracking PLAAFs journey towards global supremacyThe PLAAF, with 400,000 active personnel and around 2,700 aircraft, has evolved significantly from its early days using Soviet-era MiG-15s during the Korean War. Initially, China relied on Soviet imports and domestic production under license. However, after the Sino-Soviet split, China began reverse-engineering Soviet and Russian designs. The country later gained limited access to U.S. military technology during the 1970s-80s, though this ceased following the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident.By the late 1990s, the PLAAF had made substantial progress, acquiring advanced aircraft like the Sukhoi Su-27, Su-30 MKK, Su-35, and their Chinese variants such as the Shenyang J-11, J-15, and J-16. In 2004, the PLAAF adopted the Strategic Air Force concept, transforming itself into a more integrated force capable of both offensive and defensive operations across air and space.The force has since developed indigenous designs like the Chengdu J-10, J-20, and Shenyang J-31, marking its transition into a modern, capable air force.Chinas recent strategic advancesBy the mid-2000s, the PLAAF had become proficient in the use of precision-guided munitions, aerial refueling, and networked command and control systems. Though it still faces challenges, particularly in developing modern engines, Chinas air force has steadily expanded its operational capabilities. The PLAAF now has advanced fighters, long-range bombers, transports, AEW&C aircraft, and various helicopters and drones.In recent years, the PLAAF has strengthened its collaboration with the PLAN, focusing on joint operations in the East and South China Seas, with an eye on countering potential U.S. intervention in the Taiwan Strait. The development of sophisticated air defense systems has also given China the ability to project power beyond its borders.What is Chinas air power todayThe PLAAF currently operates a fleet of nearly 2,700 aircraft, with around 1,800 classified as combat aircraft, including fighters, bombers, and attack aircraft. China boasts the second-largest active combat aircraft fleet globally, with 1,200 fourth and fifth-generation planes across more than 25 frontline combat brigades.Key aircraft in Chinas inventory include the J-10C, J-16, and J-20, all equipped with advanced AESA radar systems and long-range air-to-air missiles. The PLAAF has also made significant progress with large aircraft, such as the Xian Y-20 transport plane, and has retired outdated models like the Chengdu J-7 and Shenyang J-8.Chinas missile inventory is another critical factor in its growing military strength. The PLAAF is equipped with a variety of air-to-air missiles, such as the PL-10, PL-12, PL-15, and PL-17, some of which rival or exceed the performance of their U.S. and Russian counterparts.What are the ambitions of Chinas militaryChinas ambitions to become a global military power are well-documented. By 2025, the country aims to master leading-edge defense technologies, and by 2027, it wants to have the capability to invade Taiwan if necessary. By 2035, China plans to compete with the U.S. military as a peer, with the ultimate goal of surpassing the U.S. by 2049.The growing capabilities of the PLAAF, PLAN, and Chinas space program are central to these ambitions. Advanced technologies such as stealth, counter-space systems, hypersonic weapons, and autonomous platforms are all key components of Chinas military strategy.The PLAAF has also focused on improving its global reach, with significant investments in transport and refueling capabilities. The induction of more Y-20 transport planes and the planned expansion of aerial refueling assets will further enhance Chinas ability to project power abroad.Will China surpass US in global dominanceChinas rapid military growth poses a direct challenge to U.S. global dominance. While the U.S. still has a larger inventory of fifth-generation stealth aircraft, Chinas production rates are increasing. By 2035, China plans to have 1,000 J-20 fighters in service. The unveiling of Chinas next-generation H-20 stealth bomber, expected by 2025, could further shift the balance of power.In the longer term, Chinas rise in airpower will have significant implications for global security, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Countries like India, facing potential threats from China, may need to accelerate their own defense programs to keep pace.In the words of U.S. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall, “We are in a race for military technological superiority with a capable pacing challenge from China. Our cushion is gone. We are out of time.”
