New Delhi: While Vladimir Putin might be reeling from Ukraines unexpected incursions into Russias Kursk region, he could be quietly celebrating potential political victories in Germany this weekend. Pro-Russian parties are set to make significant gains across three eastern German states—Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia—as regional elections approach, two of which are scheduled for Sunday.The Alternative for Germany (AfD), known for its pro-Russian stance, is poised to finish first in all three states, according to polling data. This comes alongside the growing popularity of the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). The anticipated success of these Moscow-leaning parties could give Russia a renewed influence over a significant part of former East Germany, a region it dominated during the Cold War era.Pro-Russian parties surge in eastern GermanyThe potential electoral sweep by these parties is likely to cause unease across Germany. Such an outcome would reveal the deep-seated failure of Germanys political establishment to close the east-west divide, shaking the countrys already fragile governing coalition. It would also represent a symbolic personal victory for Putin, whose time as a KGB agent in East Germany during the 1980s has left him with a strong affinity for the country. Some even refer to him as “the German in the Kremlin.”Current polls suggest that these Moscow-friendly parties, which span both far-right and far-left ideologies, could capture up to 50 percent of the vote across the region. In Thuringia, they could secure as much as 65 percent, with the AfD alone projected to win 30 percent of the vote.Mainstream parties struggle in pollsGermanys traditional political powerhouses—the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP)—are facing a stark decline in the eastern states. Polls suggest they might only garner 12 percent of the vote in Saxony and Thuringia, with Brandenburg slightly higher at 27 percent. Even with the inclusion of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), mainstream parties are expected to collectively fall short of the 50 percent mark.This collapse underscores the broader failure of these centrist parties to establish a lasting presence in the former East Germany. After reunification, West German political figures essentially took over eastern leadership positions, but this approach now appears to have backfired, leaving the door wide open for populist movements.What is the link between AfD and Russias influenceWhile not all parties in the race are as overtly pro-Russian as the AfD, many share the far-rights view that NATO holds responsibility for the ongoing war in Ukraine and that a peaceful resolution could have been achieved if the West had been more serious about diplomacy.Johannes Kieß, a sociologist at the University of Leipzig, notes, “The democratic parties—SPD, CDU, and even the Greens—never fully established themselves in the East, making it easier for the AfD to capitalize on the regions volatility,” Politico reported.The AfDs eastern success and its Moscow tiesThe AfDs rise has been bolstered by frustration over the Wests treatment of the East, which many eastern Germans feel has been overlooked since reunification. Even the CDUs leader in Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, has expressed skepticism about military aid to Ukraine and has called for peace talks with Moscow. Kretschmers visit to Moscow in 2021, during which he invited Putin to Dresden, further underscored the strong links between eastern Germany and Russia.The connection between the AfD and Moscow is well-documented. Ahead of the upcoming European elections, German authorities exposed an alleged Russian influence operation tied to an AfD candidate. Despite this, the AfD continues to enjoy robust support in eastern Germany.Björn Höcke, the AfDs leader in Thuringia, has publicly expressed admiration for Putins regime, stating that his first foreign trip as German chancellor would be to Moscow.Decades of Anti-Western sentimentThe persistence of anti-Western propaganda from the Cold War era has left many eastern Germans ambivalent about Russia, viewing Moscow as no worse than Washington. Figures like Sahra Wagenknecht have fueled these sentiments, accusing the U.S. of acting in its own self-interest in Ukraine.As eastern Germany prepares for its elections, a growing discontent with the Wests influence and the national governments failure to bridge the east-west divide is becoming more evident. Whether this will solidify Russias influence in the region remains to be seen, but the stakes for both Germany and its political landscape are clear.
