Five years to rearm or regret? Danish report lights fire under Europe's defense spending

World News: Danish intelligence warns that Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe within five years, depending on the situation in Ukraine and NATO's strength.The assessment arrives amidst concerns about a potential weakening of NATO and questions surrounding future U.S. involvement, amplifying fears among European allies.

The Five-Year Timeline

The Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) issued a stark warning, stating that Russia could be prepared to wage a major war in Europe within five years. This assessment hinges on a few key factors: whether the war in Ukraine ends or becomes a frozen conflict, and whether NATO countries increase their military capabilities. The report suggests that Russia is actively building its military capacity to compete with NATO forces.

Trump Factor and NATO's Future

The DDIS report also considers the potential impact of the United States' role in NATO. The agency suggests that Russia's willingness to use military force against European NATO countries would increase if it perceives NATO as weakened or politically divided, especially if the U.S. is unwilling or unable to support its European allies in a conflict with Russia. This warning comes amidst Donald Trump's repeated calls for European allies to increase their defense spending and his past suggestions that the U.S. might not defend NATO members who fail to meet their financial obligations.

Three Scenarios

The Danish intelligence agency outlined three potential scenarios: Within six months: Russia could trigger a local war against a bordering country if the war in Ukraine stops. Within two years: Russia could pose a credible threat to multiple NATO countries in the Baltic region, potentially leading to a regional war. Within five years: Russia could be prepared for a large-scale war on the European continent, assuming the U.S. remains uninvolved and NATO does not increase its military capabilities.

Not an Immediate Threat to All

The DDIS assessment differentiates the threat levels for various parts of Denmark's territory. While mainland Denmark faces no immediate threat of conventional military attack, Greenland and the Faroe Islands face distinct challenges due to their strategic location. The agency believes that Russia views Greenland and the Faroe Islands in a North American context, linking its strategic interest in the area more closely to its relationship with the United States than with Europe.