Elections 2024:: In the rapidly evolving landscape of global politics, elections are poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the economic trajectories of countries worldwide. As countries making up over 60 per cent of the worlds economic output gear up for elections, market analysts are closely monitoring the potential impacts on various sectors. Heres an in-depth look at key elections around the globe, with a focus on market risks and potential implications.Elections 2024: Will European polls shape future of integrationDates: March 10 (Portugal), June 9 (Belgium), June 6-9 (European Parliament), autumn/winter (Croatia), November (Romania), to be confirmed (Austria).The rise of Eurosceptic far-right movements, exemplified by Geert Wilders Freedom Party in the Netherlands, has injected uncertainty into European politics. Analysts are particularly eyeing Italy, whose stocks and bonds, top performers in 2023, might face challenges if Eurosceptic parties gain ground, potentially impacting European integration commitments. The EUs involvement in legislation and key decision-making, especially in supporting Ukraine and climate policies, is crucial for market stability.Elections 2024: Russias presidential pollsDate: March 17Vladimir Putin, with approval ratings exceeding 80 per cent, is set to secure another six years in power. The market risk lies in the potential insights Putin may reveal regarding the ongoing Ukraine conflict during the campaign. Western scrutiny and the possibility of asset seizures by countries like the United States and Japan add complexity to Russias economic landscape.Elections 2024: Turkeys local pollsDate: March 31Post-President Erdogans re-election, Turkey has seen a return to orthodox economics, attracting international investors. However, concerns linger over a weak lira and soaring inflation. Market stability will depend on Erdogans commitment to economic orthodoxy, and any deviation might impact the countrys financial landscape.Elections 2024: India Lok Sabha pollsDate: April-May (to be confirmed)Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third term, with India attracting capital flows amid global uncertainties. Persistent inflation, the need for coalition-building, and potential shifts in fiscal policies pose market risks. Any deviation from the current economic path could affect Indias fiscal deficit and influence domestic market borrowing.Elections 2024: Mexican presidential pollsDate: June 2Mexicos election involves reshuffling the Congress and state elections. Incumbent Morena partys wide lead could lead to a balanced Congress, mitigating drastic constitutional changes. However, increased spending may impact Mexicos currency and government bonds.Elections 2024: South Africa parliamentary pollsDate: May-August 2024 (to be confirmed)Economic challenges, power cuts, austerity measures, and corruption allegations may jeopardise the ANCs parliamentary majority. Pre-election moves, such as easing austerity, could impact debt and social spending, influencing currency stability and rate cuts.Elections 2024: US presidential pollsDate: November 5A potential Trump-Biden rematch brings concerns of social unrest and market volatility. The elections outcome could sway investor sentiment, affecting the US-China relationship, trade policies, and the performance of the dollar and stocks.Elections 2024: UK general pollsDate: Due by January 2025, expected by end-2024The UK Labour party, led by Keir Starmer, aims to challenge the ruling Conservatives. Economic uncertainties and potential spending promises may unsettle government bonds, with implications for taxation, energy companies, and Brexit-related policies.Elections 2024: Venezuelan presidential pollsDate: 2024 (to be confirmed)Incumbent Nicolas Maduros advantage in the presidential race, coupled with potential sanctions, introduces volatility to Venezuelan stocks and bonds. The US lifting certain sanctions adds complexity to Venezuelas economic outlook.As these elections unfold, the global market will navigate through a complex web of geopolitical shifts, economic policies, and regional dynamics, offering both challenges and opportunities for investors worldwide. Stay tuned for comprehensive coverage and analysis as these events shape the future economic landscape.
