Blood on the Nile: Sudan's shadow war erupts, threatening to engulf Africa in flames

A new SPLM-N/RSF alliance has left analysts fretting over a possible spillover of Sudan's civil war into neighboring South Sudan and triggering a regional conflict. The RSF, a paramilitary force, has been engaged in battle with Sudan's regular army since April 2023, attempting to broaden its presence and reach in central and eastern Sudan.

A Strategic alliance with a troubled past

The SPLM-N, under the leadership of Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, has been fighting against Sudan's forces for decades and occupies regions in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile states along the border with South Sudan. Al-Hilu joined the alliance with the RSF because he could no longer stay on the sidelines, with the RSF soon to become his neighbor ¹. The RSF, however, has been blamed by the United Nations and other commentators for a series of atrocities.

Regional implications and the risk of escalation

Sudan's armed forces is pushing back at the RSF and SPLM-N coalition by backing South Sudanese militias on their shared 2,000km border. This has generated fears that South Sudan, already plunged into political turmoil, would be driven back to an all-out civil war."If it does all come apart in South Sudan, then it would be very difficult to separate the war in Sudan from the war in South Sudan," warned Sudan specialist Alan Boswell.

A strategic location and the fear of increased conflict

RSF's capture of West Kordofan state on March 23 has provided the group with a strategic position to reach central Sudan, including the breadbasket state of Gezira. SPLM-N alliance also gives the RSF a significantly enlarged theater of operation to smuggle in supplies from South Sudan and Ethiopia and coordinate fresh attacks on the army and civilians in central and northern Sudan.