BSP wins no seat in UP: Was it helping NDA or INDIA Bloc?

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections have given a significant blow to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, where the party faced unexpected losses despite high hopes of victory. This outcome has left the BJP without a majority on its own. The question arises: what led to this situation? Was it the division of votes due to Mayawati's shift towards the India Alliance, or did the BSP inadvertently harm both itself and the BJP?

Fragmentation favored INDIA bloc

The fragmentation of BSP votes notably favored the INDIA Alliance, while also benefiting the BJP on over a dozen seats. Out of the 33 seats won by the BJP, 16 saw BSP votes exceeding the margin of victory over the INDIA Alliance. This has led many political analysts to attribute BJP's success in these seats to BSP's votes. Conversely, 23 seats where BSP garnered significant votes saw losses for the India Alliance. However, these were traditionally strongholds for BSP. In areas where BSP managed to consolidate its support base, BJP secured victories over the INDIA Alliance despite receiving fewer votes.

INDIA alliance benefited 

It is believed that BSP's traditional votes were expected in certain constituencies but failed to materialize, with a significant portion shifting towards the INDIA Alliance. This shift, influenced by the Congress Party or the Samajwadi Party in some areas, contributed to BJP's losses.

Dalits voted for BJP in 2019

In the 2019 elections, BSP's absence on 42 seats saw Dalits predominantly voting for BJP. However, BSP's participation in the 2024 elections led to a redistribution of votes, resulting in losses for BJP. For instance, in Muzaffarnagar, BSP candidate Harendra Malik garnered substantial votes, affecting BJP's performance. Similarly, in Badaun, BSP's candidate Muslim Khan secured a significant vote share, leading to BJP's defeat.

Decrease in vote percentage 

Compared to the 2022 elections, BSP witnessed a three percent decrease in votes, with a substantial portion shifting to the India Alliance. BSP's challenge lies in retaining its voter base. In seats like Nagina, BSP's vote share drastically decreased, indicating a loss of support. Despite this, Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan saw success, securing a significant margin over BSP.

Disappointment over Muslim voters

Mayawati, acknowledging the shift in voting patterns, expressed disappointment over Muslim voters not supporting BSP candidates. Looking ahead, she emphasized the need for caution in extending political participation to Muslims.

Failed to secure any seats 

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BSP contested independently but failed to secure any seats, despite receiving 9.39 percent of the votes. Efforts by Congress leaders to include BSP in the Bharat alliance were unsuccessful, as Mayawati believes such alliances are detrimental to BSP's interests.

Decline of 10.38 percent over a decade 

Mayawati's declining vote bank in Uttar Pradesh is evident from the decrease in BSP's vote percentage from 19.77 percent in 2014 to 19.42 percent in 2019, reflecting a decline of 10.38 percent over a decade.