New Delhi: In a new report, foreign brokerage Goldman Sachs has projected that Vodafone Idea Ltd shares could reach Rs 19 under a blue-sky scenario. This optimistic outlook assumes several positive factors, including a reversal in subscriber loss starting from FY27 and continued tariff hikes until FY30. The scenario also assumes a 65% reduction in adjusted gross revenue (AGR) liabilities and that the courts will accept Vodafone Ideas self-assessed AGR dues while waiving penalties.Revenue and market share projectionsGoldman Sachs further anticipates that in the best-case scenario, Vodafone Idea will achieve 300 basis points (bps) higher annual revenue growth compared to its base case, with the companys revenue market share stabilizing. However, even under this optimistic view, free cash flow (FCF) is expected to remain negative when AGR and spectrum repayments begin. The brokerage sees a potential 26% upside for Vodafone Ideas stock in this scenario, compared to an 83% downside in its base case target of Rs 2.50 per share.Concerns over capex and market erosionDespite the capital raised by Vodafone Idea, Goldman Sachs is skeptical of its ability to reverse market share erosion. The company is spending significantly less on capex compared to its peers, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio. Goldman Sachs predicts that Vodafone Idea could lose another 300 bps of market share over the next 3-4 years.The brokerage also highlighted Vodafone Ideas large AGR and spectrum payments starting in FY26 and noted that the company would need to raise average revenue per user (ARPU) by Rs 200-270 to become cash flow neutral—an unlikely scenario in the medium term.
